Get on Your Chase Face!
Written by Ray Champagne · July 13, 2008
With 6 races to go before we get to Richmond to decide this year’s playoff contenders, it’s time to do a quick rundown and postulate who will be in and who will be out when the Chase starts up in New Hampshire. Here’s my guess at who we’ll see in the top 12 and the reasons why. Agree with me? Think I’m an idiot who shouldn’t be behind a keyboard without adult supervision? Drop me a line in the comments section and let me know your predictions!
- Kyle Busch - I know, this is like trying to predict the weather in San Diego. It’s a no-brainer that he will make the chase, and that he will lead the charge after Richmond. Let’s just leave it at that, or I’ll get lambasted for wearing my KB underoos while blogging again.
- Dale Earnhardt, Jr - Based strictly on consistent performance this year, I think Junior will hold his current second place standing. If he can match or beat the 4th place standing at Pocono and survive the road race at Watkins Glen, he should be able to hold off Carl Edwards. It helps that Richmond is one of Junior’s favorite tracks and the fact that he has a 100 point lead over Carl at the moment.
- Carl Edwards - Although he is 81 points out of 3rd place currently, I believe that this is the team to beat down the stretch. They have been almost as consistent as the 18 team over the past 6 races, but have successfully stayed in the tall media shadow thrown by Kyle Busch. Look to them to do more of the same, possibly picking up a win or two at either Michigan or California, and just slip by the 31 team for third.
- Jeff Burton - “Mr. Consistent” of the 2008 season has struggled the past couple of races (37th and 19th). While I don’t think that they will become a 20-something finisher, I am not sure that the momentum is swinging their way lately. And we all know that NASCAR is a momentum sport. Look for more 10th-15th place finishes, with the exceptions being Watkins Glen and Indy, both places where RCR and Jeff seem to excel.
- Jimmie Johnson - With a 90 point lead on Jeff Gordon, arguably the only driver able to catch him, Jimmie Johnson seems to have solidified 5th place. Anything can happen, but usually that “anything” isn’t something that happens to the 48 team. When the pressure rises, they consistently perform. That won’t change.
- Jeff Gordon - 5th place is about all the 24 team has to shoot for at this point in the season, and 7th is far enough away so that they don’t have to take any wild chances to protect 6th. Being a veteran championship team, I think we’ll see Gordon try to win if they have the car, but not push the issue if they can salvage a top 10 and go on to the next race.
- Tony Stewart - With the “big announcement” behind him, Stewart and Greg Zipadelli can now concentrate on what it is that the 20 team does well down the summer stretch - kick butt and take names. With wins at Indy, Watkins Glen, and possibly Richmond, the boys of summer will leapfrog from 10th to 7th come September.
- Greg Biffle - 7th through 10th are tough slots to call, with all drivers from 7th-15th having shots at a chase berth, but once you look at the races left on the schedule, you have to give the nod to Greg Biffle. Michigan has always been Greg’s playground, and he is always good at the road courses. Bristol hasn’t been a strong point for him, but California has. With strong showings on the majority of the track types leading up to Richmond, he will hold off his closest competition, Harvick and Kenseth.
- Kevin Harvick - Indy has traditionally been good to Harvick, and he should be able to salvage a decent finish on the road course. I don’t see him “wow”ing anyone at the other tracks, maybe a top 15 car in each of them. By virtue of him having a healthy lead, this should cement him in the chase in 9th.
- Matt Kenseth - What to say about Kenseth? “The Robot” will continue to turn a bad start of a season into a successful chase surge, quietly finishing the regular season in a solid 10th place.
- Denny Hamlin - Denny’s team has really faltered as of late, but much of it was not of their doing. Pocono is obviously a place Denny is looking forward to, as well as Richmond and Indy. This is my sleeper team when the chase comes around. They learned just how hard that Championship is to grab last year, and are prepared to put up a big fight for it with Kyle once they get into the chase. I’m predicting this team will peak at just the right time.
- Brian Vickers - Every chase scenario needs to have a “what the hell are you thinking?” prediction, and this is mine. Kasey Kahne’s team was looking like they were finally coming back to form after Charlotte, but that seems to be a fluke. Meanwhile, if you check the stats, the 83 Red Bull team has been racking up fairly consistent finishes over the course of the season, and they are only 105 points out of 12th. Kahne will continue to falter, Boyer seems to be mired in his own slump, and David Ragan lacks the experience to finish off the season with a bang. Vickers probably won’t be knocking on the Championship door, but he will be rewarded with a chase berth.
And there you have it. I can’t wait to watch the excitement over the next few weeks to see how my predictions turn out.
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If Kyle keeps his car on the track he’s going to run away with the title. But with Kyle’s style he has to avoid a two or three race stretch of DNF’s that is very possible. I agree that Edwards is probably the biggest threat to Busch, but I still think that Smoke is going to have something to say about the Chase before all is said and done.
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