Rookie of the Year Easy to Predict in 2007
Written by David Lamm · October 6, 2007
For the past three or four years I have been writing for Fastmachines.com I have been making predictions as to who will win the coveted Automobile Club of Southern California Road to the Future award. The award is the NHRA’s equivalent to the rookie of the year award in other sports. Not to sound too full of myself but I have been spot on when predicting who will win the award for the past three or four years. This year I will do the same but predicting the 2007 winner just seems too easy.
NHRA.com: Five rookie racers nominated for Auto Club Road to the Future Award
The NHRA announced that five drivers in three different professional classes were the finalists for the rookie of the year award. They are (in alphabetical order of course): Ashley Force (Funny Car), Craig Hankinson (Pro Stock), Barry Henson (Pro Stock Motorcycle), Justin Humphreys (Pro Stock), and Matt Scranton (Pro Stock). I am not going to detract from anyone’s accomplishments but judging from this list, predicting the winner will not be that hard. Undoubtedly it will be Ashley Force when the envelope is opened and announced come November.
The only factor that could prevent Force from being the odds on favorite come November would be if her absence from this weekend’s race in Richmond extendeds throughout the remainder of the season. Even if that did happen, one of the other four rookies would have to go on a tear and string together a tremendous winning streak to knock her out of the award. I am not saying this because I secretly have a crush on the girl or because she was voted AOL’s Hottest Athlete, it is based on pure on the race track performance. Let take a look at the numbers.
None of the rookies currently nominated have won a race. Armed with that knowledge we now need to look at round wins and qualifying positioning. Ashley Force has advanced to the semi-finals three times this year and has 12 round wins on the season. She has qualified No. 2 three times and No. 3 three times. The only one that comes close to Force’s credentials is Justin Humphreys with two semifinal round appearances. His best starting position was No. 5 in Dallas last weekend. The other three being considered have considerably less credentials than these two.
Although Ashley Force should win this award in a walk over, the door is still open. She is not racing this weekend in Richmond due to modifications scheduled for her car have not been made yet. If the delays keep her off the track and if Humphreys makes a push here at the end, he could make it a nail biter. If Ashley Force wins any one of the remaining races, they might as well give her the rookie award in the winner’s circle to get it more TV time.
There are still a handful of races left and anything could happen. But with all due respect to the 2007 rookie class it is not as impressive as rookie classes from years prior. Barring any unforeseen winning streak, Force will not have the resume that other rookies of the year that have come before her have had. Previous winners of this award include the late Darrell Russell in 2001, Jeg Coughlin in 1998, Gary Scelzi in 1997, Brandon Bernstein in 2003, Jason Line in 2004, Robert Hight in 2005 and J.R. Todd last year. All had at least one race win to their credit during their rookie campaign and most of them had multiple wins in their rookie seasons. No disrespect towards Ashley Force but in order to legitimize this award, let’s hope she gets a race win before the year is out.
As I have in past years in predicting Jason Line in 2004, Robert Hight in 2005 and J.R. Todd in 2006 would win this award, I am betting that Ashley Force will be the 2007 winner. Despite the weak field of rookies this year, Ashley Force’s winning of this award will be impressive even if she does not capture a race win. With two DNS races on her resume where she failed to register a single point, she has positioned herself to finish the year potentially in the POWERade Top Ten. Missing this weekend’s race will deliver a severe blow to those hopes but she and her team are capable of making up the ground lost by sitting out. It will take some doing on her part and even if she comes up short of winning a race, the Auto club Road to the future Award is hers to lose.
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